Making a statement as to where stocks are headed

People are scared. They don’t know where stocks or markets are headed. Neither do I. But over the years, I have talked about how useful I have found the indicator called Trix to be. Particularly, when it comes to predicting long term changes in the market.

So, even though the blog has been abandoned for quite a while, here are my two cents: The Trix is saying is time to get back in the Market in on a weekly and monthly basis. In fact, some stocks are giving pretty nice buy signals.

Monthly

First, look at the monthly Trix (red line above) for the S&P (Blue candles) As you can see (you can click on all charts to enlarge graph), it is currently at levels comparable to bounce backs that took place in the past, except for the 2000 bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. Since I don’t believe that we are at a comparable stage, then the fact that the Monthly Trix is at this level, suggests to me we are going to turn soon. In fact, there is even a hint of turning present already. Not compelling? I know it is not, but recall that each candle is one month, this is really a long term indicator.

Why don’t I wait to say anything? Simple, because the weekly Trix, the one I follow the most, has already turned around:

Weekly

and as you can see, the signal has been fairly consistent in the past. This is why I don’t wait the 44 canonical days after a “crash” to call it a bottom.

But you don’t have to rush. According to the daily Trix, we have to rest first, as you can see below:

Daily

the daily Trix is high, suggesting there will be a restful period for 5-8 days before the market resumes its rise.

What to buy?

So many things. Oil stocks, for example, already said buy, like ConocoPhillips (COP):

COP

While tech stocks like Alphabet (GOOG) are barely giving the buy signal now:

GOOG

Buy what you like…I just like the market, thus I am making my statement…

2 thoughts on “Making a statement as to where stocks are headed

  1. Hello, I read your blogs!!! both this and devil’s blog, I have a question, do you have a good link that explains how Trix is calculated? I’m in the process of learning how to use Quantopian and am interested in using this with any strategies that i can come up with.

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